JBG SMITH Properties (JBGS)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q4 delivered Core FFO/share of $0.14 on property rental revenue of $108.4M and total revenue of $130.8M, reflecting softer commercial occupancy and higher repairs offset by resilient multifamily and lease-up at The Grace & Reva .
• Same Store NOI fell 6.5% q/q to $64.1M, while Annualized NOI at share declined to $272.6M (ex-disposed/out-of-service edged up to $267.6M) .
• Management expects “continued decreases in…earnings and increases in…Net Debt to Annualized Adjusted EBITDA during the first half of 2025” and is positioned to offset with multifamily rent growth and new deliveries (Valen & The Zoe) .
• Capital allocation remains share-repurchase led: ~$170.7M in 2024 (10.9M shares at $15.60) with authorization capacity for ~$840M more; additional 2.1M shares repurchased through 2/14/25 at $15.15 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Multifamily resilience and lease-up: In-Service multifamily ended Q4 at 96.2% leased/94.8% occupied; The Grace & Reva reached 68.6% leased and are “leasing faster than any of our other multifamily deliveries since 2017” .
• National Landing demand drivers: “We believe that the value of our National Landing assets will increase as we continue to execute our business plan,” citing defense/tech tenants and placemaking; 2024 saw 320k sf of new office leases in National Landing, the strongest year since 2019 .
• Capital recycling and buybacks: $373.7M of FY24 dispositions at a 5.4% cap; 2101 L Street sold for $110.1M; buybacks of 10.9M shares in 2024 with further post-Q4 repurchases under 10b5-1 plan .

What Went Wrong

• Commercial softness weighed on results: Q4 Same Store NOI decreased 6.5% q/q to $64.1M, “substantially attributable to…lower occupancy in our commercial portfolio” .
• Occupancy headwinds: Office ended Q4 at 78.6% leased/76.5% occupied, down from 80.7%/79.1% in Q3; Q4 office leasing totaled 118k sf vs. 150k sf in Q3 .
• 1H’25 earnings/leverage pressure: Management cautioned earnings will decrease and Net Debt/Adj. EBITDA will increase in 1H’25 as certain vacates hit and capitalization of interest ceases on the last UC project .

Financial Results

Income statement and per-share trends (oldest → newest)

NOI, SSNOI and leverage (oldest → newest)

Occupancy and leasing (oldest → newest)

Segment mix (Q4 2024 at share)

Selected KPIs (Q4 2024)

• In-Service multifamily leased/occupied: 96.2% / 94.8% .
• Same Store multifamily rent change: +0.8% new; +4.6% renewal; 60% renewal rate .
• The Grace & Reva lease-up: 68.6% leased; expected $23.1M annualized NOI at stabilization .
• Signed but not yet commenced ABR at share: $5.56M .
• Dividend: $0.175 declared on 12/16/24, paid 1/14/25 .
• Q4 buybacks: ~154k shares ($2.4M at $15.58) .

Guidance Changes

Note: No formal revenue/FFO per share numeric guidance provided. Management commentary is qualitative.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript was available in our document set. Themes below reflect management letter and release.

Management Commentary

• “We believe that office values have bottomed… the value of our holdings, especially in National Landing, has improved… and will increase as we continue to execute our business plan” — CEO W. Matthew Kelly .
• “With the recent increase in our buyback authorization, we have the capacity to repurchase approximately $840 million of additional shares, and we intend to do just that for as long as pricing remains accretive” .
• “We expect continued decreases in our earnings and increases in our Net Debt to Annualized Adjusted EBITDA during the first half of 2025,” with mitigants from new MF deliveries and rent growth .
• “During the fourth quarter, we saw an approximately 35% increase in Amazonians at The Grace and Reva… 24% of applications in January” .

Q&A Highlights

• No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript was available in our source set; management’s qualitative guidance and strategic focus are summarized from the shareholder letter and press release .

Estimates Context

• S&P Global consensus was not retrievable via our tool at this time.
• Third-party aggregator MarketBeat indicates Q4 “EPS” of $0.14 vs consensus −$0.38 (beat) and “Revenue” of $108.43M vs $116.31M (miss). Note: for REITs, “EPS” often proxies to Core FFO/share and “Revenue” here reflects property rental revenue (not total revenue) .
• Implications: Street models likely adjust down near term for office occupancy/SSNOI and leverage trajectory, with partial offsets from MF rent growth and lease-up; buybacks add per-share support .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Near-term earnings pressure likely in 1H’25 (management explicitly flagged), but MF fundamentals and lease-up should cushion and set up 2H’25 recovery into 2026 stabilization of Valen/The Zoe .
• National Landing remains the fulcrum: defense/tech demand, Amazon RTO, and placemaking underpin both MF and selective office leasing; 2024 was the strongest NL new leasing year since 2019 .
• Capital allocation is aggressive and accretive at current discounts: ~$840M buyback capacity, with track record of $1.2B repurchases since 2020 and 40% share/OP unit reduction vs. 2019 .
• Balance sheet manageable: 91.4% fixed/hedged; 2025 maturities ~$341M (~13% of total), ~90% MF collateralized where financing remains accessible .
• Watch commercial occupancy and SSNOI: Q4 office occupancy slipped to 76.5%, driving SSNOI down 6.5% q/q; management is removing 1.0M sf from service to improve long-term market balance .
• Trading lens: Expect multiple to hinge on MF execution and buyback pace vs. office headwinds; catalysts include asset sales at/above NAV, visible lease-ups, and any policy clarity on federal RTO that improves utilization .